NIGERIAN ELECTIONS – MY RESPONSE TO CONCERNED FRIENDS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

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Dr. Sunday Adelaja
Dr. Sunday Adelaja

Friends and brethren, In response to all the fears, concerns and your inquiries regarding the ongoing electoral process in my country of birth Nigeria. Please, let me appeal to you to set your mind at peace. I will adjourn you not to be overly worried from those internet propaganda by aggrieved losers. The truth is that even if the elections will be conducted a thousand times Peter Obi can never win one single one of them, no not this year’s elections.

Nigerians don’t know him enough across the whole nation. He is famous mainly among the educated elites, especially the youths and among people of his eastern region. In this particular election he will only come third with or without rigging. Especially without rigging! Believe me I know a few things about elections not only in Nigeria but around the world having lived in Europe for close to 40 years of my life. These people wailing here on the internet are like Donald Trump January 6th christian supporters. Their pastors have prophesied that Peter Obi is the God anointed candidate so they’re ready to bring it to pass even if God himself has refused to do it with his almighty power. 

For your information, I’ve participated in more than 100 elections and got 600 government officials in our church in Ukraine and I can confidently say that elections are not won by prophecies, prayers, affirmative declarations, shouts and emotions. I told all my disciples and followers on Facebook last year that  Obi will loose and no amount of shouting or wailing will change that. I even told them that they shouldn’t expect a miracle because elections are won not by prayers, prophecies or miracles. There are other factors needed for that, I learnt this the hard way, because as a young pastor in Europe I also once falsely believed that and failed woefully before I learnt the hard way. So when I speak today they don’t know I speak out of my painful experiences of the past.

Unfortunately, the youth and young enthusiasts on the internet who don’t understand this aspect of life will think Obi can win a general election in Nigeria at this stage in 2023 with his last minute burst into the arena. I understand that they’ve invested their energy, faith and resources into this elections hence it’s incomprehensible for them to even imagine that all their investments are gone just like that. Hence they have to resolve to the accusations of malpractices. Those who say there was rigging in Lagos against Obi forget that even if he gets a million votes in Lagos Obi still can’t win the general elections. In fact even if he gets 10 million votes he will still not win. The reason is very simple. Our constitution says no matter the amount of votes you get if you don’t win 25% votes in 2/3 of our 36 states you cannot be declared a winner of the presidential elections. It’s similar to the Electoral College rule in America. Unfortunately Obi can’t win 25% in 24 states of 36. Right now he has not succeeded in getting that. Without it I’m sorry he’s already lost. No other way to win without that even if half of the country votes for him, no, not in Nigeria of today.

Forget about rigging, the issue is not about rigging at all it’s about his lack of popularity in almost half of the nation. Talking about rigging, Obi and his supporters could also be accused of same. I just sent you a video where Obi’s followers wanted to kill somebody who didn’t support his party in eastern part of the country, the video is in your inbox. I have sent you another video where his followers were trying to bribe the INEC officials. I also sent you another one where his supporters were arrested in Lagos with fake voters materials. So, the point I’m making is malpractices could have happened from all sides. But it’s not the reason why Obi won’t win.He will lose because he is not popular on ground all across the lengths and breaths of our country Nigeria.

Unfortunately,you only mostly listen to his followers on internet because of their pro-active position online.  Remember I told you that Obi’s support base is majorly the elites youths and the people of his Igbo region. Yes, the elites can speak on internet but remember that 50% of our people can’t even communicate in English language, some of them don’t even know what internet is, especially in the core northern region of our country. Even though these people are illiterates yet there are those grassroots politicians that they know and follow on the ground. The relationship with those grassroots politicians and the disadvantaged masses is what is called in Nigeria a “structure”.  A structure they had built over time, which is a trust relationship between benefactors and beneficiaries. These people are in the majority numbers in our country, while it’s only 20 million Nigerians that are on internet in a country of over 200 million. 

Friends, You have known me personally over the years and you know my track records in Europe. On the other hand you don’t even know those people on the internet whose videos and writings you were sending to me to comment on. I have to say that not all these people are correct in their reasoning and arguments. Some of them I must say are simply ignorant and sour losers. Most, I’ll say are sincere and innocent people who don’t know what it takes to win or loose an election. Majority are too young to recollect what used to be called elections in Nigeria. Especially in the days of our former President Olusegun Obasanjo who happens to be from the same state with myself and a father figure also. Yet, in his days elections results were simply written not counted. Moreover, they must be written according to the dictates and caprices of the President himself. Ironically, it’s this same former President Obasanjo that is one of those calling for an abortion of this ongoing electoral process, just because it’s not going his way. It’s worth noting that Obasanjo is one of the promoters of Obi and his Labour Party. Empirically speaking though, true researchers will find these elections are by far the best and fairest in the modern history of Nigeria, thanks to the use of top notched technologies and the new electoral laws.

It’s no more possible to rig elections as in previous years in Nigeria. Let me tell you now that Nigeria will not burn down. More so, Tinubu will win the elections this year even if it’s conducted a thousand times. On the other hand, Obi who is making the most noise won’t even come second even if the elections are held a thousand times. In these particular elections he can only be third. The reason is simple the two leading political parties have spent years to build a nationwide relationship and political affiliations (structure) that clearly give them an edge in these   elections. Obi needed a little longer time to do the same, but instead of his followers to take this to heart and go to work on their weaker link, they want to rather believe in an instant miracle. Especially when they have some visible results on ground already. Their attitude is like tomorrow will never come either we take it all today or we tear the nation apart. 

What their leaders are not telling them is that each result that is being declared carries the signature of all party agents at the polling stations that attest to the validation of each results. So their agents already agreed to these results on national television too. Because before the declaration the Chaiman of INEC asks if there are objections or queries and he gives answers and explanations before the declaration. Unfortunately most people have parochial interest that things must be as they want it at all cost. This point is further confirmed by the results coming in already. The fact that where Obi is known or popular he won there and where he is not popular he failed woefully such that he could not even get 25% in those places because they don’t know him enough. Unlike, the other two leading parties who easily secured 25% in the required 24 states of the federation unlike Obi who could not even secure 25% in 20 states. Compare that to 33 states where APC’s candidate is already having over 25% of the votes. Talking about rigging these elections there are some facts on ground that show that to accuse the ruling party of rigging is to be malicious and disingenuous. 

Here are some of these facts: 

1. The presidential candidate of APC the ruling party could have easily do the rigging in Lagos because Lagos is his strong hold. Just like in Obi’s stronghold the votes recorded for him are up to 90-99% of the votes there. By the way what’s the essence of APC rigging Lagos and still loose it, if someone wants to rig isn’t it to win? Why rig and still allow your opponent to win? Crazy logic isn’t it? The ruling party was supposed to also accused Obi of rigging at their backyard to explain off their loss but they showed a bit of maturity by taking all results in good faith. 

2. The sitting President promised to deliver his stronghold for his party the APC, yet he lost his very own state to PDP yet no crying of foul play. If anything, he should have done everything to rig the elections in favor of his party, yet he didn’t do so. The ruling party should have been shouting of a foul play as the reason why they lost but they have been rather more magnanimous I must say in their loss.

3. The campaign Director of APC the ruling party could not even deliver his state and also lost his senatorial bid. I would think these are those who were to put in all efforts to rig these elections yet they allowed Obi and his party to win in their backyard to their shame 

4. Another fact is that the state with the largest number of votes apart from Lagos is also ruled by the APC and they had hoped to win the state called Kano state in a big way. You know what, they lost it too to another opposition party and still they took it in good faith. Yet you want to tell me their is rigging? Bearing in mind that the Governor of this state is a best friend to the APC candidate.

5. Another Governor who is the most passionate supporter of the APC candidate also lost his state of Kaduna to Obi even though it’s an APC controlled state. This is despite the fact that this particular Governor had publicly vowed to deliver the state to their candidate.

If these top leaders of the party could not rig the elections to protect their reputation and integrity in their own turf how then would they manage to go rig in other peoples territories when they don’t control and have much less power to do anything. Now let’s compare these to what obtained in Obi’s stronghold where as seen in the video I sent to you the so called Obidients were threatening to linch anyone who votes against Obi right there in polling stations. But apart from the video please judge by these statistics below:

Enugu State: 

1. ANINRI LG: Valid votes 11889, LP – 11339. The rest is shared between 18 other parties including the ruling party of that state. The party with all the votes is Lsbour Party of Peter Obi

2. AWGU LG: Valid Votes 20713, LP 19803. The rest is shared between 18 other parties including the ruling party of that state. The party with all the votes is Lsbour Party of Peter Obi

3. Enugu East: Valid Votes: 49729, LP: 48085. The rest is shared between 18 other parties including the ruling party of that state. The party with all the votes is Lsbour Party of Peter Obi

4. Enugu North: VALID VOTES: 45764, LP. 44666. The rest is shared between 18 other parties including the ruling party of that state. The party with all the votes is Lsbour Party of Peter Obi

5. Enugu South: TOTAL VALID VOTES 39554, LP 38511. The rest is shared between 18 other parties including the ruling party of that state. The party with all the votes is Lsbour Party of Peter Obi

Please judge by yourself where is it looking most likely there was rigging in the two scenarios I have just painted. Bear in mind that I sent you the video where in one of these eastern states the mob were about to kill a gentleman just because they suspected that he voted to the ruling APC. Is this type of intimidation also not equal to election malpractices and rigging? There abound scary and horror stories from party agents who went to represent their parties in our eastern states. They testify to the fact that the amount of fear and intimidation at the polling stations were so much that they dare not utter a word against the malpractices if you want to escape there alive. This was also attested to by the INEC officials the Copers they all said they had to keep quite to escape with their lives. So to me the cry of the Labour Party is like a pot calling the kettle black. 

Please note that I only quoted results from 5 local governments out of 85 or so local governments in the eastern part of the country, which is the stronghold of Obi. Also note that there is no single state in the whole of the nation where these type of total results were recorded for a single political party. It only happened in the East of Nigeria, yet no one is complaining about this. I do hope I’ve been able to bring to your understanding the true picture of what’s going on in my beloved country. Most importantly I hope I’ve been able to allay your fears about the happenings in Nigeria. I did this as a sign of my respect for you friends. Please keep Nigeria in your prayers. Thank you so much for your time and attention.May Nigeria Succeed And May All Her Haters Live Long To Witness It. 

For The Love Of God, Church And Nation. 

Dr. Sunday ADELAJA

Disclaimer: 

The opinions and views expressed in this write-up are entirely that of the Writer(s). They do not reflect the opinions and views of the Publisher (Nze Ikay’s Blog) or any of its employees. The designations employed in this publication and the presentation of materials herein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the Publisher (Nze Ikay’s Blog) or its employees concerning the legal status of any country, its authority, area or territory or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. Equally, the sketches, images, pictures and videos are gotten from the public domain.

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