Russia-Ukraine. Tension, Inability of Western Allies to Understand the Mystery of the Russian Soul

There is nothing more difficult and yet more gratifying in our world today than living with sincerity and acting from a place of large-heartedness towards humanity’s growth and betterment. Politics or no politics, Geopolitics or no geopolitics, the truth is that Russians are very pleasant people and the common features of the Russian character are generosity, resilience, and strength. Russians are people of humanity. Humanitarian assistance is embedded in their culture and ways of life. Russians believe in the oneness of all human beings. They believe in the strong helping the weak and giving without expecting. Russians are inventive people with a huge capacity to endure and overcome big difficulties with a strong spirit. The Russian person is often a mystery because of many extremes tied together in his soul. Russians are modest and patient and can endure for a long time, but when they eventually rise, they go to the end. Courage and sacrifice for the sake of the motherland and nation is a very Russian trait. Cold planning and calculations as it is in the West are not for the Russians. They are pushed by brilliant insights and unconventional thinking. 

They stopped Napoleon and saved the world, got not enough gratitude from the world, and still felt all right with that. They stopped Hitler and saved the world from fascism, got not enough gratitude from the world, and also felt all right with that. However, Russians have a sense of history. They have not forgotten and will never forget how in the process of saving the world from fascism lost about 27 million of its citizens, entire families beheaded, babies burned, mothers bayoneted, and little kids short in the back.

Patriotism holds an important place in Russian culture. They are proud of their history and contributions to the world. Russian Federation is the largest nation in the world, spanning 11 time zones and many different geographical environments. Russia contains an incredible diversity of people, beliefs, values, and lifestyles. Russia is a particularistic and collectivistic society. Russia does not like uncertainty and highly values stability and security. The expansion of NATO close to Russian borders is a serious source of concern, uncertainty, instability, and insecurity. The thought of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO which is the cause of present tension between Russia and the West is a dark red line for Russia. They will never allow it no matter the circumstances. The mystery of the Russian soul shows that they have risen and they are prepared to go to the end. My humble advice is that the West should look at the demands and enter into serious negotiations with Russia. They should reconsider the idea of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. I think Russia will never allow it to happen and Ukrainian leadership should know this too well and must be very careful in navigating this difficult period of their history. 

There is a popular aphorism in the former Soviet Union which says that whenever Ukrainian is born the Jews cries. The Ukraine people are intelligent people and they need that their intelligence to avoid the impending doom and catastrophe that is about to befall on their nation. Geographically, they are neighbor to Russia and with common boarder. And an attempt to join NATO is not the best way to be a good neighbor to your big neighbor which is Russia. The tie between Russia and Ukraine is so deep and historical. It dates back to at least the 9^th century with the founding of Kyivian Rus, the first East Slavic state. They are close relatives and at the beginning of the 20^th century, the Russians formed the largest ethnic group in almost all the large cities within Ukraine’s modern borders including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Ekaterinoslav, Kropyvnytskyi, Sevastopol, Kerch, Yalta and Simferopol. This shows a widespread presence of Russian-speaking individuals in urban centers across Ukraine. The Russian-speaking population in Ukraine has been a significant demographic factor, especially in the eastern and southern regions, and has played a crucial role in the linguistic and cultural landscape of the country. According to the 2001 Ukraine census, individuals who identify themselves as ethnic Russians accounted for 17.3% of the population of Ukraine. In the western and central regions, Ukrainian has been the predominant language in these regions, and there has been a historical emphasis on Ukraine’s national identity and independence. Russia has swallowed a bitter pill of NATO admitting former member-nations of Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact into its fold over the years and some of these countries are even becoming hyperkinetic aggressive towards Russia under the NATO umbrella. 

The golden rule says you do unto others what you will like others to do to you but unfortunately, in today’s world there are tiny group of individuals who decides what happens in it. This tiny group of people are sometimes called global decision-makers or international decision-makers. This golden rule is not for them and it is unimaginable the level of insanity this tiny group of people are willing to exhibit in order to protect their so-called interest. The world should know that any conflict between Russia and Ukraine as result of an attempt by Ukraine to become a member of NATO will encompass a range of issues including threat of nuclear war with its broader implication to global security. In the request by Russia on NATO to hold talks with its on-security guarantees, Russia made it loud and clear that admission of Ukraine into NATO is a dark red line that must not to be crossed. It gave reasons that the implication of having NATO bases in Ukraine would neutralize its own nuclear deterrence since it would not have enough time to react to any missile fired from Kiev that takes few minutes to reach Moscow. Russia even went as far as submitting a framework proposal to negotiate upon that would guarantee that Ukraine will remain neutral and never be admitted into NATO.

At this juncture it is important for us to refresh our memories to the Cuban crisis of the 1960s, in which the American President late President Kennedy faced the risk of a nuclear war with the Soviet Union by taking action to block the deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba which the USA considered as its neighbor. That crisis was quietly resolved by NATO agreeing to remove the nuclear missiles deployed in Turkey which Soviet Union considered as a threat to it security and Soviet Union agreeing to withdraw the deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba which Washington considered as a threat to its own security. USA will never tolerate the deployment of Russian weapons in any of its border region such as Canada or Mexico. Why then do NATO thinks Russia will tolerate it. Sanctions will not deter Russia if they decide to invade Ukraine. Russians are prepared to do anything humanly possible in order to prevent Ukraine from slipping out of their orbit of influence or joining NATO. 

Russia is such a huge and important country to the world that any attempt to seriously sanction Russia will have a devastating effect to the word economy and might not achieve the goal of the sanction. The structure of the Russian imports from the West are mainly consumable goods and services which Russia could easily find an alternative sources of supply while the export of Russia to West are mainly products of energy and energy-intensive industries which the alternative sources are limited in nature and might not be easily replaced. Besides, Russian economy is huge and it is tied to the wellbeing of the economy of many countries and when the push comes to shove many countries will put their economic interest first and will sabotage if not outright refusal to join the sanctions against Russia. 

The stage has been set and it is provocative, inflammatory and incendiary. Russia will be pushed beyond limit. It will be extremely difficult but not impossible for Russia to overcome the provocation by not invading Ukraine. I think that Russia has a deep understanding that the game being watched is not the game being played. The game being played is to bring two Slavic brotherly countries to fight each other thereby creating permanent enmity between the two countries and to use Ukraine as an instrument to weaken Russia militarily, economically, geopolitically and otherwise.

My prayers and heart go out to the Ukrainian people who have become victims in the big game of geopolitics. The people of Ukraine should pray and work hard for a political and diplomatic solution to the current crisis because the alternative will be disaster and calamity of unimaginable proportions to the Ukrainians people. The accusation that Russia wants to expand and recreate the Soviet Union has nothing to do with reality. It is mere speculation and assumption.  Russian plans are not to expand Russia geographically but to protect Russian security interests from NATO expansion towards its borders. 

The world is standing on many pillars but the four major and important pillars are Russia, China, Europe and United States of America. In the interest of the world peace, prosperity and development, these four pillars need to work together and not against each other. The relationship between Russia and USA is complex and multifaceted. The two nations have a long history that includes periods of both collaboration and conflict. The Cold War era is often cited as a time of significant tension between these two great countries. In recent years, geopolitical events have led to strain relations. However, while there are certainly challenges in the relations between Russia and USA, it is important to recognize that the dynamics are not purely adversarial. Russia is a victim of American internal politics, American military-industrial complex and American media. America needs an enemy and Russia fits that role. The American military-industrial complex needs to justify the huge defense budget. To keep the billions of defense dollars flowing, they need Russia as an enemy. The actual threat to America’s number one position economically and militarily in the world if any could be China and American internal politics. Making Russia an enemy thereby driving Russia into the hands of the Chinese is not a good foreign policy strategy. The drum of war is beating and it is beating louder and louder. During a news conference in Berlin with his German counterpart, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warns that any invasion and act of aggression will be met with a swift, severe, and united response. As a matter of urgency, there is a need to tone down the rhetoric of war. There is an urgent need for de-escalation from all sides involved. One miscalculation or one misjudgment could trigger a disastrous war. 

Professor Maurice Okoli is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

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